Which starting pitchers would fit best on Blue Jays?

The Toronto Blue Jays made their biggest offseason splash by signing Anthony Santander on Monday, but their work may not be done.

While most of the team’s winter has been characterized by the team showing interest in players they ultimately did not acquire, it’s notable that general manager Ross Atkins referred to his team’s ability to continue to add when introducing Santander on Tuesday — and rumours linking Toronto to players like Pete Alonso, Jurickson Profar, and Max Scherzer have swirled in recent days.

One of the consistent themes in the rumblings around the Blue Jays is the team’s desire to add a veteran starting pitcher. While Toronto’s starters are arguably the strength of the club, there is an undeniable appeal to adding another arm and pushing Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. One could add some juice to the relief corps while providing more certainty at the back of the rotation.

Many of the top starters are off the board, but there are still a few remaining that could provide a meaningful upgrade:

Max Scherzer

Age: 40 

Throws: Right

2024 stats: 8.31 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 in 43.1 IP with a 3.95 ERA and 3.86 xERA for 0.6 fWAR.

Upside: Future Hall of Famer still throws strikes and can induce chases and whiffs. Ultimate ‘veteran presence’ guy.

Downside: Age/injury risk. 

The bottom line: Scherzer is the biggest name on the market, but he’s 40 years old, and injuries limited him to less than 50 innings last season. 

His fastball lost 1.2 mph but remained relatively effective (+1 run value), and his slider still produced a whiff rate above 40 per cent. Scherzer’s chase rate (36.4 per cent) was elite, and his whiff rate (29.2 per cent) was above average, indicating the lack of strikeouts probably isn’t as much of an issue as it seems. 

Scherzer is no longer a superstar, but in 2024, he could still pitch. Whether he can stay healthy or be persuaded to join a team with uncertain competitive prospects is a different matter.

Nick Pivetta

Age: 31 (32 in February)

Throws: Right

2024 stats: 10.63 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 1.73 HR/9 in 145.2 IP with a 4.14 ERA and 3.51 xERA for 2.0 fWAR.

Upside: Should have a few good years left, misses bats, and strike-throwing improved in 2024.

Downside: Hard contact is an issue, and might be best used as a ‘five-and-dive’ guy.

The bottom line: Pivetta posts excellent strikeout rates without walking too many batters, but his results aren’t as good as most pitchers with those qualities, and his ERA has topped his expected ERA in six of his eight MLB seasons — sometimes by as much as a fun run.

His biggest issue is that when he gives up contact, it tends to be hard. Last season, his barrel rate allowed was in the 10th percentile, and of the 79 pitchers who’ve thrown 250-plus innings in the last two seasons, his HR/9 (1.59) is the seventh-highest.

He’s also a pitcher who struggles the third time through the order (6.35 ERA), which can strain his bullpen.

Pivetta is talented and would undoubtedly help at the back of the rotation, but there’s a reason teams have been reluctant to dive in with a lucrative multi-year offer this off-season. 

Jack Flaherty

Age: 29

Throws: Right

2024 stats: 10.78 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9 in 162 IP with a 3.17 ERA and 3.54 xERA for 3.2 fWAR.

Upside: Young enough to be a rotation staple for years to come. Best 2024 performer left on the market.

Downside: Relatively extensive recent injury history. Posted a 4.99 ERA as recently as 2023.

The bottom line: If the Blue Jays are looking for a rotational building block for the medium term, Flaherty is the best choice.

While he doesn’t wield an intimidating fastball (93.3 mph), his slider and knuckle curve are both weapons that generated a whiff rate better than 35 per cent last year. Thanks to that pair of weapons, his breaking ball run value (+12) was in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers, and his K/9 of 10.78 ranked third among all qualified pitchers.

The issue with Flaherty is that neither his health nor his production has been consistent. Between 2018 and 2019, he ranked 24th among all pitchers in fWAR (6.9). Then he only pitched 299 innings over the next four seasons combined with an fWAR of 3.3 and a middling 4.42 ERA before re-emerging in 2024.

Flaherty could be a real needle mover or the cause of numerous regrets. 

Jose Quintana

Age: 35 (36 on Friday)

Throws: Left

2024 stats: 7.13 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9 in 170.1 IP with a 3.75 ERA and 4.52 xERA for 1.0 fWAR.

Upside: Has been keeping runs off the board at a high level in recent years. Has provided 170+ innings in eight different seasons, including 2024.

Downside: Underlying numbers are a bit dicey. Cannot miss bats. Durability has been less ironclad in recent seasons.

The bottom line: Over the last three seasons, just 55 pitchers have thrown 400 or more innings, and Quintana’s ERA of 3.39 ranks 17th in that select group between Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease. It’s a touch better than Kevin Gausman (3.45), who has been a credible Cy Young candidate in two of those three seasons.

A starter’s job is to give his team quality innings and prevent opponents from scoring, and by that measure, Quintana has been outstanding recently. 

If there was a strong belief he could replicate his recent results in the future he’d be receiving mammoth offers, but his age (36), inability to miss bats (K/9 between 7.14 and 7.44 in each of the last three seasons), and unimpressive underlying metrics (xERA above 4.50 for two straight years) create plenty of skepticism.

Playing in front of a quality defence like the Blue Jays are projected to possess could allow Quintana to continue to thrive, but a significant decline from his recent production would surprise no one. 

Andrew Heaney

Age: 33

Throws: Left

2024 stats: 8.94 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 in 160 IP with a 4.28 ERA and 4.46 xERA for 2.2 fWAR.

Upside: Provided 300+ innings of solid back-of-the-rotation work over the last two years. Still misses a respectable amount of bats without walking too many.

Downside: Extensive injury history and limited ceiling.

The bottom line: Heaney has posted exciting strikeout numbers at times in his career, but as he enters his mid-thirties he’s a vanilla back-of-the-rotation option. A reduction in his walk rate led to a surprisingly productive 2024, but in the previous five years, he posted a fWAR between 1.0 and 1.5 every time out.

Sometimes that was due to strong work in a small sample (like his shortened 2020 and his 2022 with the Dodgers), and sometimes it was less impressive production with a larger workload, but the results were ultimately the same.

Heaney has below-average velocity on his heater (91.5 mph) but gets by on the strength of slider and changeup — as well as above-average command.

The southpaw’s meat-and-potatoes profile would be slightly more appealing if he had a lighter injury history. However, he’s topped 150 innings twice in his 11-year career and 100 just five times. He has been healthier recently, so it’s possible he’s turned a corner, but innings-eating types usually come with more durability assurances.

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