Raptors ‘holding a lot of cards’ with NBA’s trade deadline two weeks away

The Toronto Raptors are approaching the NBA trade deadline and their ongoing rebuild with the same overriding thought: Restoring the franchise back to competitive respectability will take however long it takes and will only happen when they have the right players in place.

Jan 23, 2025 - 16:29

Raptors ‘holding a lot of cards’ with NBA’s trade deadline two weeks away

The Toronto Raptors are approaching the NBA trade deadline and their ongoing rebuild with the same overriding thought:

Restoring the franchise back to competitive respectability will take however long it takes and will only happen when they have the right players in place.

Who those players happen to be, how they will get them and when is largely unknown at this stage.

The approaching Feb. 6 trade deadline is one inflection point. The draft lottery on May 12 is another, and the draft in late June is one more. But as the Raptors bounce along at 11-32 and with the third-best lottery odds at the moment — and don’t think for a second that team staff don’t know exactly where they fall among the other teams in the highly competitive race to the bottom of the standings — there’s an acceptance that contending teams aren’t built overnight.

How long will the rebuild take? ‘Until we get the right players’ is the mantra.

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This is worth keeping in mind over the next two weeks as the trade buzz heats up.

On the one hand, various front office sources I’ve spoken with across the league in the past few weeks share the same view of the trade landscape, one where the first, second and third consideration is what the implications of any contemplated move might be for a team’s financial flexibility going forward. That’s the downstream effect of the league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement acting much more like a hard salary cap than anything the NBA has operated under previously.

“It’s a whole different world out there, man,” said one executive. “It’s just different. Every call you make, the money element of the deal is always first and foremost.”

But on the other hand, the Raptors are actually well-positioned to benefit in a marketplace that is so tightly governed by dollars and cents.

According to Spotrac.com, only seven teams have more room under the luxury tax threshold than the $10.02 million the Raptors do. The Raptors also didn’t use their mid-level exception in the off-season, which gives them a roughly $12.8 million envelope to add a player without necessarily having to trade a contract. The Raptors certainly want to stay under the luxury tax threshold in whatever move they make — thus preserving future flexibility and securing what is currently projected to be a $35 million payout as their share of the nearly $600 million pool of luxury tax penalties accumulated by teams in the tax — but they are in position to add a little WD-40 to a rusty transaction wheel.

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Regardless of the details, it means the Raptors are one of the teams around the league in a decent position to take on money to either facilitate a larger trade — which is why they have been mentioned in the Jimmy Butler trade rumours involving Miami and Phoenix — or work around the margins on their own. Since the going rate to rent out, say, $6 million in cap space last season was a second-round pick, depending on who goes out the door in a potential deal, the Raptors might be able to generate a couple of second-rounders just based on their financial position alone.

As an example — not one based on any reporting — the Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to be to be about $31 million over the luxury tax this season, which would carry a tax bill of $96 million, second-most behind the Phoenix Suns, and a hefty bill for a small-ish market team with an unsettled ownership situation that is currently in ninth place, one game over .500. Since they can’t pay pending free agent Nickeil Alexander-Walker anyway this summer, perhaps a smart team might try and take the Canadian national team star off their hands for a low, low price.

One deal available is taking on under-performing veteran Mike Conley and the $10.7 million remaining on the 37-year-old’s contract for next season. The Timberwolves would have to pay with picks or young talent (hello, Leonard Miller!) to make that happen, and it could create an opportunity for a team with the means.

It’s the kind of market where having a little bit of financial flexibility can go a long way. The Raptors had already benefitted when they helped the Sacramento Kings out of a tight financial situation in the draft night trade where they acquired Sasha Vezenkov (subsequently waived), Davion Mitchell (a pending free agent) and the prize of the deal, the 45^th pick in the draft they used to select promising rookie point guard Jamal Shead.

“The Raptors are holding a lot of cards,” said one opposing team source. “They have space [under the tax threshold], expiring contracts, veteran players, their own picks. They can be involved in almost any major trade across the NBA.”

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And they seem willing to participate. The message from league sources is the Raptors remain fully committed to a rebuild featuring fourth-year wing Scottie Barnes as a cornerstone, and they’ve seen enough from second-year guard Gradey Dick to convince them that the 21-year-old is a long-term fit. But after that, they don’t view anyone on the roster as untouchable, which is as you might expect on a team that has won 20 games in their past 84 starts going back to the Pascal Siakam trade this time last season.

While the Raptors’ young group has shown progress this season, it hasn’t been uniform across the roster. Immanuel Quickley has already burned through one year of the five-year $175 million contract he signed last summer, playing just nine games so far on a team that has won 11. It’s far too early to draw conclusions, and Quickley is just 25 years old and in his fifth season, but the way the year has gone has done little to quell the view in some corners that the deal was an overpay, however slight.

RJ Barrett has had a career season, but that could conceivably be an obstacle if there’s a feeling he’s out-played the value of the two years and $57 million remaining on his contract. Given that all the other players in the NBA averaging 22 points, six rebounds and six assists are on ‘max’ deals, it’s a justifiable point of view. Regardless, it should make for some interesting conversation when the possibility of a contract extension comes up this summer.

It’s all worth keeping in mind, given that the Raptors are thought to be looking for a “significant piece” to pair with Barnes, per one front office source with another team. Whether that happens now, in the summer or at the trade deadline a year from now is one of those NBA unknowables.

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There’s agreement that none of the veterans the Raptors have will command a king’s ransom on their own. There’s mixed reactions around the league about whether Jakob Poeltl would command a protected first-round pick and if the Raptors don’t get one — and keep in mind the market for starter-level centres is a crowded one at the moment, with Nikola Vucevic, Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Ayton and Robert Williams III offering a limited field of buyers different options, abilities and price points — the sense is they are willing to hang on to the reliable veteran centre, who could be a useful piece if the Raptors land consensus No. 1 Cooper Flagg in the draft and are ready to compete sooner than later.

If the Raptors end up drafting someone considered less NBA-ready, the timeline to move Poeltl — who will likely be seeking an extension as he heads into the walk year of his deal — could shift to the summer.

Each of Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Chris Boucher and Mitchell are valued with second-round picks of varying quality, but they have at least shown that they are healthy and rounding into form, with all of the veterans popping off for strong performances in the past couple of weeks.

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The Raptors have done their part, showcasing their older players while having their rookies on extended G-League assignments with Raptors 905.

Not that the league doesn’t know what each of them can provide given their combined 30 years of service time, but they want to be sure they can get it on command as a trade deadline pick-up. Brown has shaken off concerns about his burst and mobility following knee surgery; Olynyk, that his passing and shooting (48.5 per cent from three so far this year) can offset his defensive limitations; and Boucher, that his ability to disrupt a game remains intact at age 32.

“All those guys could be on the move,” said one league source. “The way they’ve played the last few weeks really helps.”

The Raptors’ horizon is longer than the next few weeks, but the trade deadline can’t help but have their attention for the time being.