UFC Cage Locks: Will Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 be different than first fight?

The UFC has returned to Australia for the fourth time in the past two years with Saturday’s UFC 312 concluding with back-to-back championship fights.

Middleweights Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland are set for a rematch one year in the making in the main event, and Weili Zhang will attempt to defend her strawweight title and hand unbeaten challenger Tatiana Suarez her first professional loss in the co-main event.

Du Plessis became the UFC’s 185-pound champ when he won a split decision over Strickland in Toronto at UFC 297. Strickland, who had won the title from Israel Adesanya four months earlier, maintained his place as the division’s No. 1 contender by defeating Paulo Costa at UFC 302. Du Plessis earned his first title defence by submitting former longtime titleholder Adesanya at UFC 305.

The first meeting between Du Plessis, 30, and Strickland, 33, was a competitive back-and-forth bout that required the full 25 minutes. Will the rematch resemble the first meeting? Oddsmakers seem to think there’s a strong possibility the judges will also be required for the sequel even if the fighters themselves disagree.

Zhang, 35, is in her second stint as 115-pound champion and looking for the fourth title defence of her career. Suarez, 34, has only fought twice since 2019 and overcome numerous injuries to her this long-awaited title shot.

The fight card at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney is also chock full of local talent with an Aussie-based fighter in eight of the 12 scheduled bouts.

Every athlete that stepped on the scale at the official weigh-in made weight, however an early preliminary bout between Hyun Sung Park and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel was cancelled prior to the weigh-in due to what the organization called “weight management issues” on the Tumendemberel side.

Our trio of prognosticators continued their collective hot start to the year with another successful Cage Locks parlay last week at UFC Saudi Arabia, plus it was the second consecutive week with a dart throw bull’s eye hit.

Complete UFC 312 bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

— Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

— Weili Zhang vs. Tatiana Suarez

— Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira

— Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

— Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos

— Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

— Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil

— Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria

— Rong Zhu vs. Kody Steele

— Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset

— Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS
Best bet: Tafa vs. Teixeira ends in KO/TKO/DQ -500
Favourite: Viacheslav Borshchev -115
Underdog: Jimmy Crute +135
Dart throw: Gabriel Santos by Submission +400

I do not expect the bout between Justin Tafa and Tallison Teixeira to end in any fashion outside of a knockout. There is a reason that this fight between unranked heavyweights is third from the top and that’s because the UFC expects there to be excitement. … While I do worry that Borschev is starting to accrue miles on the tank, this fight with Nolan should be a pure striking battle and I favour his durability over that of Nolan, despite this being a road game, so to speak. … If Jim Crute is even a fraction of the Crute that we have seen previously, I expect him to beat Rodolfo Bellato. If he falls short, I do not think that we see Crute compete again, so I believe he will approach this fight with an “all or nothing” mentality. … Finally, the best path to victory for Santos against Jenkins is to take him down and with him having shown that he values opportunism in fights, I feel that submission is a very realistic path to victory.

DAN’S PICKS
Best bet:  Quillan Salkkilld -665
Favourite: Tallison Teixeira -140
Underdog: Tatiana Suarez +105**
Dart throw: Colby Thicknesse by Decision +550

After going 2-2 last week, it’s a back to basics approach this week. I have a feeling Suarez will pull it out this Saturday. There certainly isn’t any MMA evidence to prove otherwise. Yes, Zhang Weili is levels above anyone Tatiana has faced…but Suarez is on a mission to complete this ultimate comeback story. I’m excited for this co-main event. The only other pick that needs some justification is Colby Thicknesse as a dart throw. Both Colby and his opponent are making their UFC debut. Aleksandre Topuria comes in with a ton of hype because of who is brother is. This will be a closer fight than the odds state. Both fighters will push each other to new limits and it could all come down to the scorecards.

MIKE’S PICKS
Best bet: Kody Steele to win outright -222
Favourite: Tatiana Suarez -120**
Underdog: Jimmy Crute +135 Thicknesse +300
Dart throw: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2-3 at +900

The DDP-Strickland rematch will likely resemble the first meeting, especially early on, before the champ lands something big and capitalizes. There are always questions surrounding Suarez given how few and far between her UFC appearances have been. Still, when she is healthy I put her in a tier close to Kayla Harrison in terms of a dominant championship-level fighter who’s missing a UFC title. Kody Steele is an impressive and unbeaten newcomer so even though fighters coming off Contender Series stoppage wins are often overvalued in their UFC debuts, I think Steele will be able to dictate where this fight takes place and remain poised despite his experience disadvantage here. Was tempted to go with Colby Thicknesse at +300 as my dog (I think he’s live and those are lopsided odds) but Crute blowing the doors off the place by bulldozing through Bellato and snapping his four-fight winless streak in front of the home crowd would be electric.

**Dan submitted his picks when Suarez was still listed as an underdog; Mike submitted his picks later in the week after some line movement and locked in the strawweight underdog as his favourite anyways

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY

Three legs: Quillan Salkkilld + Kody Steele + Tafa vs. Teixeira ends via KO/TKO/DQ
Parlay odds: +101 (to win: $100.84)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 3 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 2-1 (streak: W1)
2025 winnings: +$61.30 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+3.02 units)
Best bet: 3-0 (+$32.50)
Favourite: 0-3 (-$300)
Underdog: 2-1 (+$270)
Dart throw: 1-2 (+$300)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+5.50 units)
Best bet: 2-1 (-$40.18)
Favourite: 1-2 (-$120)
Underdog: 3-0 (+$450)
Dart throw: 1-2 (+$260)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+2.90 units)
Best bet: 3-0 (+$88.57)
Favourite: 3-0 (+$232.30)
Underdog: 2-1 (+$270)
Dart throw: 0-3 (-$300)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times during the week and subject to change before the fights)

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