The Great Anthony Richardson Fantasy Football Debate

You have heard the Anthony Richardson fantasy football slander somewhere online. Maybe it's the SEC fan in your life with their "Trust me, I watched him" logic. Maybe it's someone on social media crippled by their 2022 Trey Lance blues. Maybe it's your fantasy football podcast co-host who loves the Skyy Moore and Laviska Shenault "undersized players with few real-life applications but cool names" tier of prospects but has a real blind spot to this potential generational talent.

The debate has pained me, one of the Internet's earliest unironic Josh Allen adopters in my days doing regular content for the fantasy data and betting analytics obsessives at Stokastic.com back in 2018. After a slow start for Allen as he adjusted from lesser competition at Wyoming (and a lot of public skepticism and scrutiny), he returned from injury and piled up four games of at least 99 rushing yards in his final six. That run was topped off by a Week 17 9-for-95, two-rushing touchdown day against Miami when he also threw for three touchdowns and a pick, a 41.5-point day in DraftKings scoring. Allen's tendencies to run and throw deep balls have been a hallmark of his career, even early on, and ones I identified years ago as key ones I want in my fantasy football portfolio.

There are historically two most prominent shades of fantasy productivity at quarterback. Your statuesque pocket passer who'll never run but can sling for 300-plus yards and create massive outlier performances for his pass-catchers is one. Your elite runner who gives you a floor with his rushing ability as well as the role to smash in touchdowns as they have carte blanche to carry the ball anywhere on the field is the other.

There are few who can truly do both. When they do, they typically find the chance to ascend to the hallowed air of your Allens, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jacksons. You have had your fleeting moments with Kyler Murray and the current aspirations for Justin Fields after he flashed a gaudy 0.34 Estimated Points Added per rush (a stat from our friends at the glorious data nirvana that is Sports Info Solutions; all the data points in here will come from them) but a woeful -34.5% passing DVOA in 2022.

The fact that we're comparing him to players like this alone should interest you in the concept of an Anthony Richardson, a player who can create value with his legs or through the air. There's a whole lot more to continue with that pro-Richardson sales pitch, one that I will personally swear by as my No. 1 take of the 2023 fantasy football season. But let's talk about his flaws first.

Anthony Richardson Core Passer Metrics

I fully acknowledge that there are some troubling data points from Richardson's star turn as Florida's starting quarterback in 2022. His 0.007 EPA per throw is perhaps only slightly better than a former James Bond actor might provide and well behind C.J. Stroud's 0.309 EPA per throw, Bryce Young's 0.238 EPA per throw, and right there with likely career backup Aidan O'Connell's same EPA mark in the final year for this draft class. Richardson does grade out better than fellow SEC competitor Will Levis and his -0.005 EPA per throw but, hey, they don't give out theoretical points for a surplus of mayo and banana peels in the body.

Will Levis eats banana peels and puts mayo in his coffee and it's possible NFL teams just drew the line with that and said no way.

— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) April 28, 2023

How about some historical comparisons? I dug into the SIS database to find some more quarterbacks who are top outcomes for Richardson, prolific runners who come without a prototypical passing package. So we're talking heavyweights such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, our current Holy Trinity of fantasy quarterbacks who can throw and run. The three faced varied levels of competition, with Hurts likely most aligned to the caliber of teams Richardson faced in the SEC, an important thing to keep in mind.

In these same EPA metrics, Hurts is the clear winner based off his 2019 Oklahoma season. Hurts' 0.388 EPA per throw easily beats the aforementioned 0.007 for Richardson. You can debate how much of that was Hurts and how much of that is Lincoln Riley's scheme, which has now vaulted multiple quarterbacks to NFL success (or at least high draft capital). But Richardson is behind Lamar Jackson's 0.101 EPA per throw at Louisville his last year and ahead of Allen's -0.045 EPA per throw.

Richardson is also the worst of these four with a 2.8% interception rate per attempt (that would also be in line with NFL league average). Hurts was remarkable with a 0.4% interception rate while Allen and Jackson are close to Richardson with a 2.2% and 2.3% interception rate respectively.

A lot has been made of Richardson's poor 53.7% completion rate at Florida last year. It's the weakest amongst the drafted rookies this year, even later picks such as Jaren Hall or an undrafted free agent such as Malik Cunningham. But it's not far off from Allen's 56.3% completion rate, Jackson's 59.1% completion rate, or Hurts' 60.4% completion rate, all likely to be considered "subpar."

The catchable ball rate is also in a similar range with Richardson in the rear. Richardson's 71.5% catchable ball rate is behind Allen's at 73.7%, while Jackson and Hurts both were decimals apart at 76.5% and 76.9% respectively.

Despite higher draft capital than these other three stars, it's safe to say that baseline passing metrics look unfavorably on Richardson even compared to these similar archetypes. One area he stands out is 14.5 yards per completion compared to 14.4 for Lamar, 11.9 for Allen, and 13.5 for Hurts ... but is that enough?

Anthony Richardson's Biggest Weakness

It has to get worse before it gets better in this Curious Case of Anthony Richardson, as Encyclopedia Brown may dub it. And it does not get much worse than Richardson's throws under 10 air yards. You can point to things like his footwork, which some tape-watchers have in prospect breakdowns. You could also point to a subpar cast at Florida that was perhaps unable to handle Richardson's Favre-ian 100 MPH heaters that will bust a knuckle or two at short range.

Anthony Richardson lowlights truly are some of the most mind-boggling plays ever pic.twitter.com/loL22IwHAk

— JA ' (@JKLNN4) May 11, 2023

Either way, Richardson's -0.44 EPA per throw on passes under 10 yards is abysmal, even accounting for the difficulty of stacking up a high EPA on catches likely to be surrounded by multiple defenders. He is worst in the 2023 draft in this area of the field but, oddly, right amidst these other guys with all four as negative-EPA passers in short range. Allen's -0.23 EPA per throw is second-worst, Hurts' -0.18 EPA per throw is third-worst, and Jackson's -0.02 EPA per throw leads the way. For reference, Stroud was tops among non-Stetson Bennett rookies with a 0.08 EPA per throw under 10 air yards while Bennett, unencumbered by any quest to achieve a college degree, notched a 0.18 EPA per throw for the short ones to lead the class.

The accuracy in this range is even worse of a look for Richardson. Richardson's 56.0% completion rate in throws under 10 yards is bottom of the draft class and lower than Allen's 65.2%, Jackson's 68.8%, and Hurts' closer-to-average 75.0% completion rate in this range. None of these guys make their living underneath as pros so perhaps you can excuse the failings of Richardson here. But I have to flag it as something that is downright unappealing and a fair critique, albeit one that explains his overall poor numbers with him schemed to take these under-10-yard throws on almost 50% of his dropbacks.

The good news? Things look up for Richardson from here.

Anthony Richardson Under Pressure

One area that stands out is how Richardson handles pressure. Let's watch a fun video to quickly illustrate:

Just remember of what Anthony Richardson is capable of