No Extension Talks Between Cardinals, Ryan Helsley

Right-hander Ryan Helsley spoke to reporters about his future with the Cardinals during the club’s Winter Warmup fan event this weekend. As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.

Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”

It’s not a response that projects much confidence from Helsley about his prospects of remaining in town beyond the end of his contract. While the Cardinals have been seen as unlikely to part with Helsley on the trade market all winter even in spite of interest from rival clubs, keeping Helsley for the start of the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean that the club has interest in keeping the right-hander in the fold long-term or even that they’re opposed to considering a trade for Helsley over the summer if the club isn’t in playoff contention.

The biggest reason for the club to hold onto Helsley to open the season is that the club hopes to maintain some level of competitiveness in a relatively weak NL Central division this year. Helsley was among the best closers in baseball last season as he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work while collecting an MLB-best 49 saves. He struck out 29.7% of his opponents and continued to flash triple-digit velocity on his fastball. That’s the sort of dominant performance that can substantially boost a team’s odds of staying competitive, and the Cardinals don’t have a bevy of young relief arms ready to step into Helsley’s shoes the way they do with veteran hitters from the 2024 club like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Of course, another consideration is money. Helsley and the Cardinals settled at an $8.2MM salary to avoid arbitration this year. That $8.2MM, while not insignificant, would not do as much to assist the club’s goal of lowering payroll in 2025 as letting Goldschmidt (who signed for $12.5MM with the Yankees last month) depart in free agency did, to say nothing of how much more impactful trading most or all of the $60MM the Cardinals still owe Arenado over the next three seasons would be. In fact, Helsley’s impact relative to the Cardinals’ financial obligation to him arguably makes him one of the most valuable players on the team. Viewed through that lens, it’s understandable that St. Louis is planning to keep him in the fold through at least the first half of the season as they attempt to compete for a playoff spot.

Once Helsley is no longer under team control, that value calculation figures to change radically. Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader have set a new standard for elite relievers in free agency by landing deals that garnered both more than $90MM over a five-year period by measure of net present value. Helsley’s track record isn’t quite on the same level as Hader’s but even this year’s top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, is rumored to be in line for an annual salary that could approach $20MM. If Scott, who had a dominant platform season but has a shorter track record of late-inning excellence than Helsley does, can land that sort of deal in free agency this winter it’s hard to imagine the righty not garnering a deal that at least comes close to doubling his annual salary next offseason.

That’s not the type of contract extension that would make sense for a Cardinals club that’s facing payroll constraints to offer, even before considering the uncertainty the team faces as it turns its focus towards developing younger players at the big league level. That makes it somewhat understandable for the Cardinals to not pursue an extension with Helsley at this point. After all, playing out the final year of his contract allows them to leave the door open for a midseason trade if the club is out of contention while also not stopping them from re-upping with him after the season should they believe that he’s a fit for their needs in 2026 and beyond. If the Cardinals exceed expectations and remain in the mix for a playoff spot all year, it will be much easier for them to project the level of competitiveness in 2026 necessary to make splurging on a closer of Helsley’s caliber more justifiable.