Maybank IB revises up 2025 TIV forecast to 790k units

CIMB Research recently revised upwards its 2025 total industry volume (TIV) forecast from 755,000 to 760,000 units; now so has Maybank Investment Bank but by a bigger quantum – from 750,000 to 790,000 units, Bernama reports.

This upwards revision is on the back of sustained mass-market growth, offset by weakness in the premium/luxury segment, with a positive catalyst from the latest OMV/402 postponement to January 2026, the investment bank said in a research note yesterday.

It added that mass-market sales, particularly from Perodua and some Proton models, are expected to benefit from higher consumer spending, driven by the February minimum wage increase and the December 2024 civil servant wage hike.

“The mass-premium market segment (RM100,000-RM200,000 vehicles) will face margin pressure from intensified competition but should still contribute to overall TIV growth.

“Meanwhile, the premium/luxury segment is likely to struggle due to competition from affordable and attractive new models, including electric vehicles (EVs), as well as potential petrol subsidy cuts and the high-value goods tax, which could offset growth in other segments,” it said.

Maybank IB also projects EV and hybrid adoption to respectively reach 3% and 5% in 2025 (versus 2024’s 2% and 4%), driven by new model launches and aggressive pricing, especially from brands rushing to sell fully-imported (CBU) EVs before the tax-free period expires year-end.

On EV chargers, it noted that only 3,354 have been installed in Malaysia as of October 2024. To achieve the government’s 10,000-unit target this year, there needs to be 554 new chargers a month on average (2024’s monthly average was 111).

“If (the OMV/402 revision is) implemented, locally-assembled (CKD) car prices could rise by 10-30%. We believe this could hurt local TIV sales, especially if it coincides with other headwinds like petrol subsidy rationalisation and the high-value goods tax, potentially dampening consumer sentiment and market demand,” Maybank IB said.

In ascending order, the 2025 TIV forecasts are now RHB Investment Bank 730,000, CIMB Research 760,000, the Malaysian Automotive Association 780,000, Maybank Investment Bank Research 790,000 and Kenanga Investment Bank 805,000.

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