Eagles move to 6-point favorites over Commanders

The Eagles opened on Sunday night as 4.5-point favorites over the Commanders in the NFC Championship. The line has moved to 6 points, in less than two days.

Does it mean anything to the looming showdown, a rubber match between division rivals? No. But it's interesting to see how much of the early money has landed on Philly, to the point where the line has moved to nearly a touchdown.

Meanwhile, the AFC Championship hasn't moved at all, from the Chiefs giving the Bills 1.5 points.

For Commanders-Eagles, the key will be the late movement, when the sharps declare their position. And much of that will hinge on the truth about Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts's left knee injury.

The Eagles will say as little as possible. Someone will know the truth. And folks with a strong financial incentive to know the truth will.

Think back to last year. Everyone knew Hurts had a left knee injury. Hell, he was wearing a brace on it. But the Eagles resisted acknowledging it in the injury report.

This year, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni "accidentally" blurted out that Hurts had an undisclosed ankle injury, because Sirianni somehow confused one of his most important players with someone else.

Think back to 2022. The line for a Cowboys-Eagles game shifted dramatically because of a then-unknown Hurts shoulder injury, from Dallas minus-1 to Dallas minus-6. (The Cowboys eventually won by six, 40-34, with Hurts not playing.)

The Hurts knee is the key. Early betting quite possibly is based on the notion that Hurts will be fine. Later in the week, as kickoff approaches, any movement of the line toward the underdog will likely say much more than anything the Eagles will put on their injury reports.