Dodgers, Kirby Yates Reportedly Reach “Tentative” Agreement

10:55am: There’s nothing official in place yet, per reports from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two parties are “working toward a deal,” while The Athletic indicates “serious” negotiations are taking place. There could simply be semantics at play. Nightengale’s initial report plainly stated that a physical still needs to take place, so there’s never been firm indication of a final deal yet. A physical for a 38-year-old pitcher with Yates’ injury history isn’t necessarily a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, a deal would be announced in the next few days.

9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.

It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.

Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.

It should noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.

Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.

Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.

Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.

The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.