Champions League permutations for Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Aston Villa explained

Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa all have just one Champions League game remaining in the 2024-25 league phase.

The Gunners, who defeated Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 in their penultimate league phase match on Wednesday night, are third in the table after seven games.

City, who lost 4-2 at Paris Saint-Germain, are 25th while Liverpool and Aston Villa are first and ninth respectively after they played on Tuesday.

Ahead of the final round of league phase fixtures, here is the state of play and permutations for the four English clubs, with three of them still fighting to advance to the next stage of the new-look, revamped competition…

What is the new Champions League format and how does it work?

This season, the traditional 32-team group stage of the Champions League was replaced by a league phase featuring 36 clubs, which has been commonly referred to as a ‘Swiss model’.

Rather than playing three teams twice, each side was drawn against eight different opponents – two from each of the four seeding pots. Every team will play four games at home and four away.

The results will determine where all 36 teams finish in one large league table. Those that finish in positions one to eight secure direct qualification to the last 16.

Clubs ranked nine to 24 enter into a knockout play-off contest, where victory will secure a spot in the round of 16. Teams in positions 25 to 36 are eliminated from the competition.

What do Arsenal need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages?

Arsenal are third in the league phase table with one game left. They face an away match against Girona next week in their last scheduled fixture.

The Gunners’ 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday, coupled with other penultimate league phase matches across the last two nights, means Mikel Arteta’s men have all-but directly qualified for the last 16.

Only an extraordinary sequence of results in next week’s final round of group matches could deny Arsenal a spot in the top eight, even if they lose.

What do Man City need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages?

City are 25th in the league phase table with one fixture remaining. Pep Guardiola’s side host Club Brugge in their eighth match on January 29.

The Premier League champions are in massive danger of being eliminated, given that any team placed 25th or lower will be knocked out next week.

It is not possible for City to directly qualify for the last 16. If they draw or lose to Club Brugge, they are guaranteed to be going home early.

Only a win against Club Brugge will do for City, which will be enough to earn them a spot in the knockout play-off round ahead of the last 16.

What do Liverpool need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages?

Liverpool are top of the league phase with one match left. The Reds travel to Dutch side PSV next week for their last game before the knockouts.

It is not possible for the Reds to drop out of the top eight, even if they lose to PSV, meaning that they have directly qualified for the last 16.

What do Aston Villa need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages?

Aston Villa are ninth in the league phase ahead of their last game, which comes against Scottish club Celtic at Villa Park on January 29.

Unai Emery’s side are just outside of the top eight spots, and will hope to directly qualify for the last 16 if they can beat Brendan Rodgers’s side.

It is no longer possible for Villa to fall outside of the top 24, meaning they are sure of at least a spot in the knockout play-off round.