California’s H5N1 Emergency Declaration Highlights Need for an Urgent National Response to Avian Flu

The H5N1 virus is spreading so rapidly among cattle in California that Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency. Sick cattle not only produce less milk, but their milk is also infected with the virus, so it cannot be sold. The US Federal government will only partially reimburse dairy producers for the losses they incur when infected cattle are removed from the herd. 

The damage to the poultry industry has been even more catastrophic because while H5N1 does kill a small number of cattle (with a mortality rate of about 2%), it can easily wipe out entire flocks of chickens, ducks and turkeys. In the US, the virus caused $1.4 billion in losses to poultry and egg producers as of November 2024. Even domestic pets are at risk. For example, after household cats caught the virus (with some cats dying) from infected raw food in the Pacific Northwest, the USDA is now requiring pet food manufacturers to include H5N1 in their safety plans.

There are potential risks for people, as well. Avian influenza does not yet spread efficiently among human beings. And while experts still say that risk is low, recent events show that the H5N1 is spreading and evolving in concerning ways.  Additionally, a study published mid-January reported that a genetic analysis of H5N1 virus isolated from a human patient had mutations that enable it to replicate more easily in human cells, making it potentially more deadly to people. 

The longer the virus rages unchecked among livestock and poultry, the more likely it becomes that H5N1 evolves to spread easily among people, and some studies show that it wouldn’t take much change in its genetic code for that to occur. Just a single mutation would enable the virus to specifically target receptors on human cells, and now that the virus has been detected in pigs, the chance of that occurring grows even higher. Pigs can contract both bird and human variants of influenza, which enables these different variants to swap genes. 

If H5N1 does evolve to spread from person to person, the ramifications could be dire. The U.S. has seen 66 confirmed cases and one death from H5N1, with most cases causing only mild symptoms. Globally, however, about half of all confirmed cases have resulted in the patient’s death.

The California declaration shows that the country’s most populous state recognizes just how serious the situation with H5N1 has become. Unfortunately, that urgency is not yet reflected on a national level.

It should be. 

The central laboratory testing problem

One of the most important capabilities in fighting a virus is the ability to test for it. In the United States, all tests for H5N1 in cattle and poultry are PCR-based and must take place in authorized laboratories. While these tests are very precise, they are also slow. Samples must be collected and transported to a lab to be processed, so it can take days to return a result, and the time it takes to ship samples can degrade samples and produce inaccurate results. Plus, labs have finite resources. In times of heavy use, these labs become bottlenecks, further slowing the delivery of results. 

Even a few days is too long to wait for a result. Avian flu spreads quickly among farm animals, and by the time a positive test result is returned, the virus could have spread to additional herds and flocks. The current lab-based model makes it extremely challenging to conduct proactive testing, which is particularly important before transporting livestock. Unknowingly transporting infected animals spreads the virus to other flocks and herds.   . 

It’s also a problem for humans. In mid-January, the CDC issued an alert asking hospitals to test all patients with flu-like symptoms for influenza A. It also asks that labs immediately send along samples of influenza A that don’t test positive for the seasonal subtypes to a public health lab that can test for avian influenza. Even if expedited, this daisy chain of lab tests could take a week or two to return a result, by which point the patient may be too far along in the course of the disease to benefit from early treatment. What’s more, delays and bottlenecks make it extremely challenging to regularly test farm workers who work in close contact with cattle and poultry. 

As a recent study in Virology Journal points out, “Imagine trying to spot a wildfire before it consumes an entire forest. Just as early detection of smoke and heat is crucial for forest fire management, the early identification of zoonotic threats in animal populations is vital for preventing human outbreaks. However, our current systems are like using a single smoke detector for an entire forest—insufficient and often too late.” 

Speeding development and approval of fast, accurate H5N1 tests

To contain H5N1, the US needs a test that’s on par with the precision of PCR and can provide rapid results at the point of need. The CDC is currently partnering with industry to develop a fast and accurate point-of-need test to detect H5N1, which is a good start. But while we do need human tests, the greater need right now is for poultry and cattle, because that’s where the virus is rapidly circulating.

The USDA has the responsibility for ensuring that animal diagnostics are safe and effective. It’s a critical task, and the agency has a solid record of ensuring that American agriculture can trust the diagnostics on which they depend. But the current crisis, waiting months or years for the approval of innovative technologies to fight H5N1 on farms gives the virus far too much additional time to wreak economic havoc and evolve the capability to create another deadly human pandemic. 

We need the equivalent of a fast-track approval process within the USDA for agricultural diagnostics and vaccines for H5N1, particularly where these solutions exist today. To support fast tracking innovation, the USDA could collaborate more closely with industry and invest in pilot programs to enable regulatory authorities, veterinarians and producers to test innovative technologies in the field. Doing so would help accelerate development and inform public policy.

We still have time to bring H5N1 under control, but we need more powerful tools now. The virus is spreading and evolving quickly. So should public policy. 

About Shaun Holt

Shaun Holt is the Chief Executive Officer of Alveo Technologies, Inc. He brings more than 20 years of operational and financial leadership experience across several technology and life sciences companies, from start-ups to large-capitalization companies. In addition to his role at Alveo, Shaun is an advisor to Celesta Capital, a venture capital firm. Previously, Shaun served as chief operating officer of Atonarp, Inc., a Celesta Capital-backed optical and mass-spectrometry instrumentation company, and, prior to Atonarp, as chief financial officer for Berkeley Lights, Inc. (now PhenomeX).