Analytics predicts the Super Bowl: Eagles defense a nightmare matchup for Chiefs
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images Despite having Patrick Mahomes, the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is a daunting task for the Chiefs offense in the Super Bowl. The NFL learned long ago that sports is also a storyline business. Besides the competition not being scripted, the NFL has borrowed as many things from professional wrestling as possible to become a monolith sport in America. The Super Bowl is their crowning moment with other huge moments spread throughout the calendar. This year’s matchup lacks the sizzle of something new but the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Philadelphia Eagles does not lack storylines. From the Chiefs quest to three-peat (and referee conspiracies to go with it) to Saquon Barkley’s continued reminder that running backs matter and everything in between, this year’s big game should be big fun. Throughout the NFL playoffs, we have shared prediction pieces using FTN’s DVOA metric. While that is not what the analytic was created for, it has been a fun way to analyze the most important games of the NFL season. As we found in the conference championship games, data can’t take into account things like the championship pedigree that Kansas City brings to the table. Another way DVOA can be used is to help understand the nuances in a matchup between two teams. As a whole, FTN’s DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better. Here, we’re providing you with a more detailed look at how the Chiefs offense matches up with the Eagles defense within the data. We will do the same for Philadelphia’s offense versus Kansas City’s defense. The following DVOA data includes the regular season and playoffs this year: Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Pass Game Rankings Kansas City Offense: 11thPhiladelphia Defense: 2nd A surprising number for the Chiefs offense while the Eagles remain near the top of the league. While no one will doubt Mahomes’ ability to get the passing game going, especially to Travis Kelce, Kansas City’s season has not been as explosive without Rashee Rice while Philadelphia has dominated since their bye week. They were incredibly effective against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game for their best game of the season. Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Run Game Rankings Kansas City Offense: 12thPhiladelphia Defense: 2nd An early season injury to Isaiah Pacheco stalled the Chiefs run game early in the year but the return of Kareem Hunt at least helped stabilize it. The Eagles, with their dominant defensive line and stellar play from linebacker Zack Baun, control the line of scrimmage but lost Nakobe Dean early in the playoffs from their second level. Kansas City has to be able to have some kind of running game or Philadelphia’s line will be able to pin their ears back against Mahomes. Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Overall Rankings Kansas City Offense: 8thPhiladelphia Defense: 1st The best defense in the league versus an offense led by who many believe could end up being the greatest quarterback of all time. Mahomes’ unit at times took it easy in the regular season, which accounts for their lower-than-expected ranking, but have shown they can turn it on in the postseason. They will have to in order to overcome the stout opposing defense.
Despite having Patrick Mahomes, the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is a daunting task for the Chiefs offense in the Super Bowl.
The NFL learned long ago that sports is also a storyline business. Besides the competition not being scripted, the NFL has borrowed as many things from professional wrestling as possible to become a monolith sport in America. The Super Bowl is their crowning moment with other huge moments spread throughout the calendar.
This year’s matchup lacks the sizzle of something new but the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Philadelphia Eagles does not lack storylines. From the Chiefs quest to three-peat (and referee conspiracies to go with it) to Saquon Barkley’s continued reminder that running backs matter and everything in between, this year’s big game should be big fun.
Throughout the NFL playoffs, we have shared prediction pieces using FTN’s DVOA metric. While that is not what the analytic was created for, it has been a fun way to analyze the most important games of the NFL season. As we found in the conference championship games, data can’t take into account things like the championship pedigree that Kansas City brings to the table.
Another way DVOA can be used is to help understand the nuances in a matchup between two teams. As a whole, FTN’s DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.
Here, we’re providing you with a more detailed look at how the Chiefs offense matches up with the Eagles defense within the data. We will do the same for Philadelphia’s offense versus Kansas City’s defense.
The following DVOA data includes the regular season and playoffs this year:
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Pass Game Rankings
Kansas City Offense: 11th
Philadelphia Defense: 2nd
A surprising number for the Chiefs offense while the Eagles remain near the top of the league. While no one will doubt Mahomes’ ability to get the passing game going, especially to Travis Kelce, Kansas City’s season has not been as explosive without Rashee Rice while Philadelphia has dominated since their bye week. They were incredibly effective against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game for their best game of the season.
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Run Game Rankings
Kansas City Offense: 12th
Philadelphia Defense: 2nd
An early season injury to Isaiah Pacheco stalled the Chiefs run game early in the year but the return of Kareem Hunt at least helped stabilize it. The Eagles, with their dominant defensive line and stellar play from linebacker Zack Baun, control the line of scrimmage but lost Nakobe Dean early in the playoffs from their second level. Kansas City has to be able to have some kind of running game or Philadelphia’s line will be able to pin their ears back against Mahomes.
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense - Overall Rankings
Kansas City Offense: 8th
Philadelphia Defense: 1st
The best defense in the league versus an offense led by who many believe could end up being the greatest quarterback of all time. Mahomes’ unit at times took it easy in the regular season, which accounts for their lower-than-expected ranking, but have shown they can turn it on in the postseason. They will have to in order to overcome the stout opposing defense.
