What Lebanon's shifting political landscape means for Hezbollah

• Lebanon elected General Joseph Aoun as president earlier this month, ending a two-year presidential vacuum.
• Just days later, Nawaf Salam was named as the country's prime minister.
• Business Insider has taken a look at what the moves mean for Hezbollah.

Lebanon elected General Joseph Aoun, the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), as president earlier this month, ending a more than two-year presidential vacuum.

Just days later, Nawaf Salam, who had been serving as the president of the International Court of Justice, was named as prime minister, replacing the Hezbollah-backed caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati.

The moves marked a dramatic shift in Lebanon's power balance and highlighted the weakened state of Hezbollah, one of the country's most powerful political players.

Here's what we know about Lebanon's shifting political landscape and what it means for Hezbollah.

The political shake-up in Lebanon — which operates a sectarian power-sharing system — comes in the wake of Hezbollah's costly conflict with Israel.

The group had been exchanging strikes with Israeli forces since October 2023, in the wake of Hamas' October 7 attacks.

But it was thrown into disarray after Israel killed its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and wounded thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.

A cease-fire deal between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah took effect in November.

However, the group was dealt another major blow by the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime the following month. Syria had offered Iran an important pipeline through which it could transfer weapons and supplies to Hezbollah, but the fall of Assad effectively cut this route off.

These events have come as heavy blows to Hezbollah, depleting its resources and diminishing its ability to project its influence into Lebanese politics.

The appointments of Aoun and Salam may further compound Hezbollah's position.

Aoun was seen as the favored candidate of both the US and Saudi Arabia, which had spent years trying to end Lebanon's political stalemate.

A rival candidate preferred by Hezbollah had withdrawn prior to the vote, paving the way for Aoun's election.

While Aoun could help secure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, his forces may present a new obstacle for Hezbollah.

"If the Lebanese army expands its presence into areas formerly controlled by Hezbollah, it will be more challenging for the group to rebuild its capabilities," said Will Todman, the deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"And if President Aoun alone is credited with securing international funding for reconstruction, it could further the sense that Hezbollah abandoned its constituents during and after the conflict with Israel," Todman added.

However, Aoun may be reluctant to provoke Hezbollah as he seeks to stabilize a country that has been mired in economic crisis and devastated by Israeli strikes.

"Hezbollah, no doubt, will be sharply watching the new president's moves in the coming months," wrote Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs. "Aoun is a pragmatist and is unlikely to provoke a confrontation with Hezbollah that, despite receiving a battering in the recent war, remains domestically powerful and potentially dangerous if it feels threatened."

While Hezbollah did not oppose Aoun's nomination, Salam's appointment as prime minister is said to have angered the group — which had sought to get Mikati reappointed.

Mohammed Raad, a Hezbollah lawmaker, reportedly said the group had taken "a positive step" by helping elect Aoun as president and was "hoping to find that hand extended, only to find it was cut off."

Salam has committed to implementing a UN Security Council resolution related to the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah that, in part, says Hezbollah should not have an armed presence near the border with Israel.

However, analysts say Salam is unlikely to risk provoking the group too much while he tends to more pressing needs.

"Salam is highly unlikely to juggle his uphill battle to extract Lebanon from near-total collapse while clashing — politically or otherwise — with one of the country's most socially and politically powerful factions," David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said.

For his part, Salam has said that the formation of a new government would not be delayed, that his hands were "extended to everyone," and that he was committed to starting "a new chapter" in Lebanon "rooted in justice, security, progress, and opportunities," per Reuters.

Aoun and Salam

Aoun joined the LAF in 1983, during the Lebanese Civil War, and he became its commander in 2017. His forces have an important role in maintaining the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

Aoun is regarded as a "no-nonsense," nonpartisan figure who tends to avoid political discussions, the Associated Press reported.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who met Aoun on multiple occasions, told the outlet that the president was a "very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm."

"He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media," Saab said. "He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army."

Salam became Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations in New York in 2007. He held the position for 10 years.

In 2018, he was elected a judge on the ICJ, and he became its president in 2024.

Salam presided over ICJ hearings stemming from South Africa's allegations that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.

World leaders and officials from around the world have welcomed the appointments of Aoun and Salam.

President Joe Biden said in a statement that he "strongly" believed Aoun was "the right leader for this time."

"President Aoun will provide critical leadership as Lebanon and Israel fully implement that cessation of hostilities and as hundreds of thousands of people return to their homes and Lebanon recovers and rebuilds," he said.

The Iranian embassy in Lebanon also welcomed the news, saying it looked forward to working with Aoun to strengthen relations between the two nations.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres took to X to congratulate Salam on being named prime minister.

"The road ahead for Lebanon is filled with promise but also great tests," he wrote.

In Israel, the news gave rise to mixed reactions.

Israel's minister of foreign affairs, Gideon Sa'ar, congratulated Lebanon on the appointment of Aoun, but he criticized Salam's nomination.

"The President of the ICJ, just appointed Prime Minister of Lebanon, has called Israel an enemy," he wrote. "How can such a person be expected to judge Israel fairly? President Salam's decisions regarding Israel must be disqualified immediately. Otherwise they might as well take the 'J' out of the ICJ."