The only way Arsenal can’t finish in the Champions League top eight explained

It’s possible for Arsenal to not finish in the Champions League top eight tonight if they lose to Girona coupled with other results.

The Gunners know what they need to do to finish at least eighth in the new-look, revamped league phase to directly qualify for the last-16 stage of the European competition.

The north Londoners defeated Croatian club Dinamo Zagreb in their penultimate league phase match last week to all-but seal a top-eight spot.

Arsenal travel to Spain to take on La Liga side Girona in their final league phase match tonight at the Estadi Montilivi knowing a win or draw will 100 per cent assure them of a place in the Champions League last 16.

Even if Arsenal lose to Girona – it is still possible for them to directly qualify for the last 16 – but if other results don’t go their way, it could all change.

The only Arsenal can’t finish in the Champions League top eight would be if they lose to Girona – coupled with a unlikely goal-difference swing involving one of the clubs on 13 points – Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille or Brest.

Arsenal, third in the league phase table, currently have 16 points from their seven games with a +12 goal difference. Of the six teams mentioned above, German side Leverkusen have the best goal difference of +6.

So, for example, Arsenal’s top-eight spot would be in in jeopardy if they lost 3-0 to Girona and Leverkusen managed to beat Sparta Prague by the same scoreline.

But it would take an unlikely set of results involving six clubs all bettering Arsenal’s result and a heavy defeat for them to slip down to ninth or lower.

The good news for Arsenal is that Opta’s supercomputer predicts there is only a 0.1 per cent chance of them missing out on a top-eight spot.

Plus, even if they were to miss out on the top eight, they would still not be eliminated from the competition.

Teams who finish between ninth and 24th enter into a knockout play-off contest, in what essentially just becomes an extra round.

Arsenal are hoping to get their hands on the Champions League trophy this season for the first time in the club’s 138-year history, with the Gunners having never been champions of Europe before.

Mikel Arteta’s side reached the quarter-finals last term, losing to Bayern Munich over two legs.