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Super Bowl LIX Pick ‘Em: Can the Eagles get the job done?
We’ve arrived at Super Bowl LIX, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Here are picks against the spread, the over/under, and some player props using football odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.
We’ve arrived at Super Bowl LIX, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles clobbered the Washington Commanders in the NFC championship 55-23, while the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills 32-29 in the AFC championship. Kansas City’s 32 points in the AFC championship was the most they’ve scored in any game this season.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread, the over/under, and some player props using football odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I believe the Eagles have more strengths than the Chiefs. Thus, I’m taking the Eagles +1.5.
The Chiefs have the same aura as the New England Patriots in the 2000s and 2010s, meaning they find a way to get it done even if it’s not “pretty.”
However, I think the Eagles have a legitimate chance of winning this game outright, and it starts in the trenches.
The Eagles have a phenomenal offensive line with Jordan Mailata at left tackle, Lane Johnson at right tackle and Landon Dickerson at left guard. Centre Cam Jurgens was injured ahead of the NFC championship, but with more time to recover, it seems likely he’ll be healthier and able to suit up and play more than the 27 snaps he played against Washington in an “emergency” role.
This will be important as the main threat on the Chiefs defensive line is defensive tackle Chris Jones. Other than that, Mailata and Johnson can hold up just fine against Chiefs edge rushers Mike Danna and George Karlaftis.
Mailata has allowed just two sacks all season, while Johnson hasn’t allowed one. In fact, Johnson has allowed just 12 pressures all season.
Turning things over to the Eagles defensive line, they should be able to get pressure throughout the game.
The Chiefs moved left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle starting in Week 15. Since then, he’s held up, allowing just one sack. He’s also allowed 17 pressures, though 10 came in his first game at the position.
With him moving over, Mike Caliendo is at left guard. This post-season, he’s allowed six pressures and one sack.
The Eagles defensive line is loaded with talent, including Josh Sweat, Moro Ojomo, Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and potentially Brandon Graham, who was recently designated to return from injured reserve but it remains to be seen if he’ll suit up.
Look for the Eagles to get pressure more often than the Chiefs. You can also anticipate the Eagles offensive line to continue to hold up in the running game to allow running back Saquon Barkley to produce. He has five touchdowns in the last two games.
SPREAD PICK: Eagles +1.5 (-110)
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The total in this game is 49 points, and I’ll take the over. While it was two years ago, Super Bowl LVII finished with a final score of 38-35.
While I think the Eagles are the stronger team in the trenches, the Chiefs still have the best quarterback in the world in Patrick Mahomes.
I anticipate a lot of scoring. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against opposing RBs this season, allowing more than 100 rushing yards per game to the position. They’ve also allowed them to run in three touchdowns.
While the Eagles were the No. 1 overall defence in the regular season regarding yards allowed per game (278.4), they’ve allowed 289.5 passing yards per game over their last two against the Commanders and Los Angeles Rams.
When it’s all said and done, the Eagles will get the job done. I predict they beat the Chiefs 31-28 for a total of 57 points.
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 49 (-110)
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PROP BETS
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-200)
The odds aren’t fantastic at -200, but Barkley will score. As previously mentioned, he has scored five times in the last two games, including three in the NFC championship.
Now, he’ll take on a Chiefs defence that’s allowed three rushing touchdowns to RBs over the last two weeks to the Bills and Houston Texans. In those games, they also allowed at least 107 rushing yards.
Barkley had just 15 carries in the NFC championship blowout.
However, before that game, he had at least 25 carries in four straight games.
With the Super Bowl on the line, the Eagles will lean on the man who’s carried them to where they are.
He’s scoring, at a minimum, one time.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 1.5 Receptions (-115)
Believe it or not, Smith-Schuster is one of the starting outside receivers for the Chiefs. In the AFC championship, he played in 22 receiving snaps and ran a route 95.7 per cent of the time he was on the field.
In the AFC title game, he caught two passes on three targets for 60 yards.
Where he lines up, Smith-Schuster will likely see a lot of Eagles cornerback Darius Slay, mostly in one-on-one matchups, as they try to contain Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce.
Slay has been targeted a bunch over the past two playoff games, allowing 11 catches on 19 targets.
I think Smith-Schuster could benefit from the Eagles aiming to ensure Kelce doesn’t continuously get open and Worthy doesn’t beat them in a foot race.
Smith-Schuster will get some chances.
