MLB Mailbag: Guerrero, Alonso, Yoshida, Alcantara, Cubs, Mariners

This week's mailbag gets into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether the Mets should move on from Alonso, whether any MLB trade was as shocking as the NBA's Luka Doncic deal, those who feel this MLB offseason has been dull, how much the Red Sox would have to eat on Masataka Yoshida's contract, possible Sandy Alcantara suitors, and much more.

Jed asks:

Why is the general expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get over $400m in free agency next winter for 10+ years despite being a defensively limited, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I've seen so much coverage about how he may not get more than a $23m AAV from the Mets for no more than three years total. Obviously Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and would be playing his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. But Vlad Jr. will be 27 in 2026, the first year of his presumptive 10+ year mega deal. After those first three seasons on Vlad's hypothetical 10+ year mega deal, he will also be playing his age-30 season in the fourth year of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.

Aside from getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits convinced that an expensive, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes more sense than a short-term deal with a $23m AAV for Alonso (especially considering that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 more homers and posted a higher slugging percentage)? Why is everyone convinced that Vlad Jr represents a better long-term bet to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the other countless examples of RHB 1B who failed to produce in their 30s?

I can't speak to general expectations; only my own.  I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December 10th.  A key point was, "So much depends on which Guerrero shows up in 2025."

I strongly prefer the wRC+ stat to home run totals and slugging percentage.  We need to account for offensive contributions other than the home run, and in a more logical way than slugging percentage (a home run is not worth four times as much as a single, for example).  Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024.  In those years, he hit so well that his defense was an afterthought and he was worth 5-6 WAR.  Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or better seasons under his belt prior to free agency (extrapolating his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season), and it's because he's never posted worse than a 143 wRC+.

Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that more human range can drop him all the way to 1-3 WAR.  That's a guy you very much don't want to be paying $40MM a year.  But Vlad always has the batted-ball data to back up elite offense, and with another 160+ season I do think offers reach $400MM+.

Alonso's best season was his rookie year with a 144 wRC+.  His second-best was 141 in 2022.  He's been at 121 over the last two years.  He's a 2-3 WAR player who's shown a ceiling of 4 WAR.  Guerrero has shown more variance, but his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he nearly reached it in the recently-completed season.

In comparing age, I'd look at the Opening Day difference of each player's first year under a new free agent contract.  In other words, comparing age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero.  Using that approach, Guerrero is 3.27 years younger.  Those being prime years, they're incredibly important when it comes to free agent contracts.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS

• Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
• Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
• Remove ads and support our writers.
• Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker