Chabot’s impact on Senators’ success undeniable

OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators have taken a leap in the standings.

So, the question presents itself: Which Senator has taken the biggest leap this season?

No question: Thomas Chabot.

Chabot has become the player fans and pundits thought he would be after breaking onto the scene during the 2018-19 season when he collected 55 points, which earned him his eight-year, $64 million contract.

Endless potential was attributed to Chabot, who is a smooth skating defenceman with silky hands and vision.

But the unending Senators rebuild forced Chabot to play over 24 minutes a night for years on porous teams, which stunted his growth. His liabilities on the defensive side were exposed when consistently playing against the opponents’ best players.

Heading into this season, the question was asked. Would he regain his potential under new coach Travis Green? He has.

From the jump, Green paired Chabot with Nick Jensen, who was acquired from the Washington Capitals for Jakob Chychrun in the off-season. General manager Steve Staios sent a clear message that he valued Chabot over Chychrun.

As good as Chychrun has been in Washington, Staios made the right choice.

Last week in overtime against Washington with Chychrun on the ice, Chabot slivered into open ice to receive a pass from Shane Pinto, finding himself all alone and launching a shot to win the game on his birthday.

Not too Chabby.

Speaking of potential, Chabot ranks fifth in the NHL according to Evolving Hockey in terms of wins above replacement (WAR). Graeme Nichols of The Hockey News pointed that out to Chabot.

“No way,” said Chabot in disbelief as Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov are the top three in WAR this season.

“That’s what I try and do,” Chabot said about his impact. “Obviously this year, I don’t get necessarily the big chance of playing as much power play time. So, it’s me finding ways to create and finding chances at five on five. And I think we’ve done that (with) Jensen and I all year.”

Jensen and Chabot are the elite second pair the team has been yearning for, alongside Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. Chabot and Jensen lead the team in shot share with 53.40 per cent by a pair and are second in expected goals share of 51.63 per cent at five-on-five (min. 100 minutes). Meanwhile, they have the best goal differential of any pairing on the team, outscoring opponents 37-28 this season.

 “I think it’s just finding consistency with Jensen. The last five or six years, we were switching around a lot of the partners,” Chabot said.

“We both can move the puck. We both can skate well. We both can defend and in the O-zone we like to get some movement going. And we’ve done a good job so far all season creating scoring chances or possession time in O-zone time for our team. And it doesn’t always go in the back of the net, but I think that it finds a way to build momentum for our team. And the more you play in the O-zone, the less you have to play in your own zone.”

But it isn’t all because he’s been playing with Jensen, who recently got hurt with a lower-body injury, missing five games before returning Tuesday. Chabot leads the team in shot share of any defenceman at 54.88 per cent at five-on-five, and is second in expected goals percentage behind Zub.

Even with Jensen out, and Travis Hamonic in, Chabot had been carrying his partner. Hamonic has struggled all season, playing too high up in the lineup for his abilities, primarily with Sanderson, but has been solid with Chabot. The difference is stark, and that’s no disrespect to Sanderson, the newly minted third star of the week, who has been spectacular of late.

According to Natural Stat Trick at five-on-five.

Small sample size for Chabot, but still.

He’s been elite. But it’s all come with Chabot in a lesser role, moving down to running the second power-play unit; he has a modest 26 points in 53 games. Analytics aren’t everything but at times they can glean more of a story than the raw stats.

“I said it at the start of the year,” Chabot said. “It’s the point we’re at here as a team, as a group of guys, being willing to maybe get 10-15 or 20 (fewer) points this season but making the playoffs and being a successful team.”

Who cares about points when you’re winning?

Chabot, a career minus-60, is a plus-16 this season. Plus-minus isn’t always indicative but according to Evolving Hockey, Chabot is 173rd out of 622 in the NHL in terms of expected goals allowed.

And he’s killing penalties. Chabot had rarely killed penalties before in this season. He’s thrived. He has only been on the ice for 10 power-play goals against in 107 minutes, which leads the team in the fewest goals allowed short-handed per minute of any of the Senators defenceman.

“Chabby’s having a great year,” Green said. “He’s been a committed player on both ends of the rink.”

The most important area of improvement has been clear. Earlier this week when Chabot came to the defence of Spartacat. He’s getting good at that.

But Chabot has not completely lost his offensive chops. Chabot was generating offence all night Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was on the ice for all three Senators goals while earning two assists. In the second period, Chabot niftily found Claude Giroux in transition, who rifled it past Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to tie the game 2-2. Chabot moved to third in assists in Senators franchise history.

There used to be questions about whether Chabot was worth eight million dollars a season. He’s been worth it and more this season.

Adams’ Apples

Linus Ullmark started Tuesday for the first time in 44 days after sustaining a back injury. He was sharp, giving up three goals on 37 shots in the 4-3 loss. After questions around Ullmark’s health subsided for a game, the next big question will be: Should he play in the 4 Nations Face-Off for Sweden next week?

Ullmark has had three injuries since training camp and is on the wrong side of 30. Alex Pietrangelo in Vegas pulled out from the tournament due to an ailment while still playing in regular season games. It can be done.

Ullmark is destined to start for Sweden with Jacob Markstrom hurt. You can never blame a player for wanting to play for his country. At the same time, is Ullmark ready to potentially play four games in eight days for Sweden? Not sure about that. And the Senators need him for their playoff push. Echoes of Dominik Hasek’s 2006 Olympic injury that halted the Senators’ Stanley Cup hopes are burned into Sens fans’ memories.

Staios and company should do everything they can to convince Ullmark, who has never played for his country, to step aside.

Regardless, it’ll be fascinating what happens.

Senators fans’ little brother perspective

I see similarities between Toronto Raptors and Senators fans. Masai Ujiri told Raptors fans to ditch the little brother mantra of the fanbase when they acquired Kawhi Leonard in 2018 after the Raptors continually underachieved in the playoffs. To be confident in Toronto. “Believe in the city, believe in yourselves.”

Raptors fans didn’t have to be nihilistic; they could be confident. Same goes for Sens fans.

After the Quebec City debacle, fans were justifiably outraged from the PTSD of the past. But let’s be clear. The team isn’t moving, and the team is good.

A Toronto-Ottawa playoff series could well be on the horizon.

“We got to be proud and loud and feel confident,” Senators owner Michael Andlauer said about the fanbase and organization last week.

Fans have the right to feel however they want but a reminder it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. 

Shane Pinto left the game against Tampa Bay, with an upper-body injury. Senators might be without their second- and third-line centre with Josh Norris, who is also injured. Green provided no update post-game in Tampa Bay.

More from Sportsnet

Lightning snap Senators’ winning streak in Ullmark’s return

Senators’ Shane Pinto leaves vs. Lightning with upper-body injury